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EUR/USD has been drifting lower after rising beforehand. The ECB meeting is next. What can we expect?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

SEB Research discusses the expectations around  this week’s ECB July policy meeting.

“The upcoming ECB Governing Council meeting on July 25-26 is an inter-quarter meeting (no updated staff projections) and also the last one before the summer break. Since the ECB has already laid out the policy path for the remainder of 2018 and the larger part of next year at its latest meeting on June 14 we expect the July meeting to be a non-event,” SEB notes

We expect no reaction whatsoever by financial markets to the meeting outcome.  Market participant should instead set their sights on the ECB’s first meeting after its summer recess on Sep 13, at which the Central bank will present updated staff projections for growth and inflation.

More important, however, policy makers will then need to confirm their stated intention to reduce the pace of QE from its current € 30bn to € 15 bn per month at the beginning of October,” SEB adds.

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