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The PLN has strengthened by about 1.3% year-to-date. EUR/PLN is trading in a narrow band (4.20-4.30), slightly stronger than where the cross traded last year. Strategists at Nordea share the EUR/PLN forecast for this year.

Key quotes

“The NBP is likely to signal that rates should remain on hold, but we still believe the risk is tilted towards a hawkish move in H2 2020, following in the footsteps of the Czech National Bank. This should result in a lower EUR/PLN towards the end of the year.”

“We expect EUR/PLN to keep testing levels up to 4.30 in the short term. In the second half of the year, we expect a mild PLN appreciation as the NBP turns more hawkish and the global economy rebounds.”