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Given the unpredictability of the supreme court decision on the Swiss Franc issue, economists at Danske Bank expect the zloty to suffer some downside pressure in the near-term. Nonetheless, the EUR/PLN is forecast to decline towards 4.45 over the next year.

Short-term upside risk from Swiss Franc verdict

“Given the possible demand for FX (in particular Swiss Franc), we think the PLN can come under pressure after the early May supreme court verdict and have raised our 1M target slightly to 4.58. We however see a falI in EUR/PLN over the coming years to 4.45 in 12M.”  

“We don’t think the cross will go all the way back to the pre-crisis levels due to the inflationary drift triggered by NBP’s acceptance of relative high inflation.”