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The Polish zloty has rallied sharply over the last sessions buoyed by investors’ confidence on a quick economic recovery, which has prompted the Rabobank FX analysis team to downgrade the EUR/PLN mid-term forecasts.


Key quotes

“Over the past few sessions, the Polish zloty has outclassed its CEEMEA peers rallying more than 2% versus the euro and 2.3% against the US dollar since last Thursday.”

“Consequently, EUR/PLN has broken below the support area around 4.51/50. The sharp move on Tuesday implies that stop losses on long EUR/PLN positions must have been triggered.”

“We, therefore, trimmed our 1m and 3m forecasts to 4.60 and 4.80 respectively from 4.80 to 5.00 previously. Whether we are forced to abandon this still relatively bullish 1-3 month view will depend on a mixture of technical analysis, economics, monetary policy, domestic politics and external developments.”