Economists at Credit Suisse expect EUR/PLN to fall to the 4.40-4.45 area as the central bank has toned down its dovish stance and stuck to an only-vaguely defined preparedness to intervene by selling zloty in the FX market.
Key quotes
“We now expect EUR/PLN to drop to the 4.40-4.45 area. EUR/PLN is likely to remain under downward pressure as investors continue to question the central bank’s commitment to loose policies.”
“A return to mid-December’s low of around 4.42 in EUR/PLN seems plausible to us. The reason that we are not projecting a decline to levels below 4.40 as a base case, for now, is that the central bank may still opt to support EUR/PLN below the next ‘rounded’ level.”
“ Overall, the possibility of central bank intervention still supports the idea that EUR/PLN has an (unknown) support level.”
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