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EUR/SEK has refused to drop sustainably below 11.00 and one reason could be the acceleration seen in Swedish Corona fatality data in the most recent week, according to analysts at Nordea.

Key quotes

“We still see a risk that the SEK could be seen as a ‘pariah’ by international markets if the fatality growth accelerates in the coming weeks.”

It is also worth noting that we are about to enter peak dividend season in Swedish kroners with the big bulk of SEKs paid out during April. Due to the Corona crisis, the dividends to be paid are naturally much smaller than in 2019 and 2018, but it is still a slight risk factor for the SEK through April.

“EUR/SEK traded higher in 7 out of the last 8 Aprils, so we prefer to be short the SEK through this month targetting around 11.20 in EUR/SEK.”