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Throughout the first quarter EUR/SEK consolidated within 10.05-10.15 and in Q2 to date it has spent 83% of the time within the tight 10.10-10.20 range, with just a brief visit towards 10.30 in early April. In the bigger picture, EUR/SEK can be defined as range-bound. But it may also be characterised as the first phases of the ascent trend that economists at Danske Bank envisage for this year.

EUR/SEK range-bound and contingent on USD developments

“We keep our 1M-3M targets intact at 10.10 and 10.20, respectively, and near-term we recommend to play roughly that range, even though implied volatilities have come down already.”  

“From a strategic viewpoint, we repeat our slightly bullish forecast profile of 1M 10.10, 3M 10.20, 6M 10.30 and 12M 10.40.”

“While there is room to read the recent broad dollar sell-off in different ways, in our view it has had a lot to do with repricing by central banks, particularly the Fed. We see this as a reality check in terms of how they interpret data on the back of Average Inflation Targeting.”  

“There are many reasons to expect the Fed to start tightening well before both the ECB and Riksbank. From that perspective, we consider it prudent to treat the recent USD move as a correction rather than a trend reversal and we stick to our strategically bullish view on the dollar, USD/SEK and EUR/SEK.”

 

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