The common currency and the Australian dollar are looking for a new direction. What’s next?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
TD Research discusses its tactical views on EUR and AUD. TD is neutral on EUR and bullish on AUD in the near-term.
“Over the past three years, for instance, the price action (6m %) has closely mirrored the shift in growth expectations (52% correlation), and yet it has all but ignored front-end rate spreads. The upshot is that the EUR is mostly trading where it should, though it runs cheap to our global factor component. That explains about 40% of the EUR and puts it at 1.1475,” TD notes.
“What’s your favorite antipode? The antipodes have been closely watched over the past few months for a host of reasons. The simplest is that AUD is one the world’s best barometers on growth and reflation – at least in the FX market,” TD adds.
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