EUR/USD has been moving higher, but can it rally hard?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
Societe Generale Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of its latest forecasts updates which now puts EUR/USD at 1.14 by mid-next year ahead of 1.20 by next year-end.
EUR/USD is at the heart of a dollar forecast, even if we don’t think the euro is driving global currency trends. The consensus for next year, according to Bloomberg, looks for a rise through 2020 to 1.13 by mid-year and 1.15 by 4Q. The pace picks up a bit after that and reaches 1.20 by 2023, which is conveniently in line with the forward rate. How exciting is that? Our EUR/USD forecast looks for 1.20 to arrive earlier, by the end of 2020. That puts us at the upper end (but not quite at the very top) of the survey panel,” SocGen notes.
“The question for 2020 is whether a euro recovery requires eurozone growth, or if further slowing in US growth to European levels is enough?,” SocGen adds.
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