FX Strategists at UOB Group have ruled out a test of 1.1100 in EUR/USD for the time being.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: “Yesterday, we were of the view the “weakness in EUR is expected to extend lower but major 1.1180 support is unlikely to yield so easily”. While EUR subsequently dipped below 1.1200 (low of 1.1198), it recovered quickly to end the day little changed at 1.1223. Downward pressure has eased with the recovery and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, EUR is expected to trade sideways for today, likely between 1.1200 and 1.1245″.
Next 1-3 weeks: “After trading in a relatively subdued manner for a few days, EUR staged a surprisingly sudden and sharp decline and tested the bottom of our expected 1.1200/1.1310 sideway trading range (first indicated last Thursday,11 Jul, spot at 1.1255). From here, a move below 1.1200 and the mid-June low near 1.1180 would not be surprising. However, downward momentum is not as strong as we prefer and EUR is unlikely to ‘accelerate’ lower. Overall, EUR is expected to trade with a ‘downside bias’ for now but is unlikely to challenge the year-to-date low near 1.1100 (there is another support at 1.1155). On the upside, only a move above the strong 1.1260 resistance would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased”.
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