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  • EUR/USD may gain following the Dollar weakness.
  • Coronavirus cases are declining in the UK and Europe, lending further support to the Euro.
  • Better risk sentiment can further boost Euro and other riskier assets.

The EUR/USD analysis shows optimism to gain beyond 1.1900. Does global growth appear to have peaked? The problem worries investors, but it quickly removes inflation fears. But there are reasons to rejoice, and the euro can dominate the markets and lift the EUR/USD rate.

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ISM’s purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector fell to 59 points, which is below the psychologically significant mark of 60 points, which is the mark of psychological significance. However, any number over 50 indicates expansion, and 59 is a positive number.

Furthermore, the employment component rose to over 50, meaning there were more new employees. Respondents also indicated that finding employees just got a little easier – a relief when trying to fill vacancies.

“Prices paid” has made the most significant progress, which began with highs. Markets were concerned until just a few weeks ago that the Fed would tighten its monetary policy too quickly if inflation rose too quickly. Friday’s Core PCE figure was also below expectations in light of the wobbly report by ISM. Apparently, the Fed’s preferred inflation rate peaked at 3.5% YoY.

There is a growing concern that growth may be reaching its peak rather than quelling, considering that inflation is expected to decrease.

A second front also shows signs of improvement. UK and Spain are experiencing declining COVID-19 cases, but the current Delta wave is affecting western countries first. They are still climbing in the US; however, Americans resist bite first.

Can the safe-haven dollar be affected by positive market sentiment? Apart from these factors, investors are keeping an eye on China’s pursuit of large domestic companies – its “techlash.” Likewise, the US Infrastructure Act has made progress since it was adopted. The US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which is likely to attract much attention, will yet again focus attention on growth and inflation.

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EUR/USD technical analysis: key levels to watch

The EUR/USD price managed to overcome the key resistance provided by the congestion of the 20 and 200 SMAs on the 4-hour chart. However, the 1.1900 psychological mark serves as yet another strong resistance area. Eventually, we have a swing high of June 25 at 1.1974 as an ultimate target for the buyers.

Despite the slightly positive outlook, the pair lacks follow-through momentum to continue further buying. The volume is sliding slowly, giving signs of corrections.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart analysis
EUR/USD 4-hour chart analysis

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