Search ForexCrunch
  • The pair looks consolidative in the 1.1140 region so far.
  • The greenback trades within a tight range in the low 98.00s.
  • US flash Q1 GDP figures next of relevance later in the day.

The sentiment around the shared currency remains fragile so far this week, although EUR/USD has managed to rebound somewhat from yesterday’s 2019 lows near 1.1120.

EUR/USD now looks to US data

After three consecutive daily pullbacks – including a visit to June 17 lows in the 1.1120/15 band – the pair is now seeing some relief in the 1.1140 area, where some consolidation trading turned up.

The deteriorated mood around the riskier assets in combination with miserable prints from the euro docket has been plotting against any serious attempt of recovery in spot as of late, all aggravated at the same time by auspicious results across the pond, which rendered in extra oxygen to the buck.

Moving forward, the pair is posed to stay under further scrutiny in light of the upcoming release of the first revision of US GDP for the January-March period along with the final print of Consumer Sentiment for the month of April.

What to look for around EUR

The broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics are posed to rule the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with the onoging US-China trade dispute and potential US tariffs on EU products. Recent weak results from key fundamentals in the region plus a now unlikely rebound in the activity in the second half of the year have added to the ongoing concerns that the slowdown in the region could last longer that expected and the ECB is therefore likely to remain ‘neutral/dovish’ for the foreseeable future (say until mid-2020?). On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections in late May, as the populist option in the form of the far-right and the far-left movements appears to keep swelling among voting countries.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is up 0.07% at 1.1138 and a breakout of 1.1233 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1282 (55-day SMA) en route to1.1323 (high Apr.17). On the downside, the next support aligns at 1.1118 (2019 low Apr.25) seconded by 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017) and finally 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017).