- The EUR/USD trades with a bullish bias at 1.1828 while traders await ISM Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management.
- The EUR/USD supported above 50 EMA ahead of the US NFP figures later this week.
- Forex trading market participants may look for a buy trade above 1.1800 with an initial target of $1.1850 and $1.1890 levels.
The EUR/USD closed at $1.1807 after placing a high of $1.1848 and a low of $1.1795. The pair surged on Tuesday and reached its highest level since the 5th of August amid the continued weakness of the US dollar and improved risk sentiment in the market. The EUR/USD supported above 50 EMA ahead of the US NFP figures on Friday.
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The US NFP Report in focus
The US dollar index dropped on Tuesday for the 3rd consecutive session. It reached its lowest level in more than two weeks at 92.40, which ultimately supported the rising prices of the EUR/USD currency pair. The greenback was already weak across the board after the dovish comments about tapering monetary stimulus from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium. Moreover, now investors have shifted their focus towards the release of NFP data this week on Friday.
Investors were keenly awaiting the report on job creation in August, which will be released on upcoming Friday. It’s expected to increase to 728,000. Any figure above this level will support the US dollar, and any figure less than this level will add further loss to the greenback.
Quick Update on Economic Events
On the data front, at 11:45 GMT, the French Consumer Spending in July declined by-2.2% against the forecasted 0.1% and weighed on the single currency Euro and further capped gains in EUR/USD. For August, the French Prelim CPI surged to 0.6% against the forecasted 0.4%, supported by the Euro.
The French Prelim GDP for the quarter also rose to 1.1% against the predicted 0.9% and pushed the EUR/USD pair higher. At 12:55 GMT, the German Unemployment Change dropped to-53K against the expected-40K, adding further upside momentum to EUR/USD.
The CPI Flash Estimate for the year surged to 3.0% against the predicted 2.7%. The Core CPI Flash Estimate also rose to 1.6% against the anticipated 1.5%, supported the Euro, and adding momentum upward to the EUR/USD pair. The Italian Prelim CPI advanced to 0.5% against the expected 0.4% and supported the single currency Euro for August.
US Economic Events Review
From the US side, at 18:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for June declined to 1.6% against the predicted 1.9%. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year improved to 19.1% against the anticipated 18.7%, supported the US dollar, and further capped gains in the EUR/USD pair.
At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI from August fell to 66.8 against an estimated 68.0 and weighed on the US Dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the CB Consumer Confidence also declined to 113.8 from the anticipated 122.9.
The single currency Euro was high on board against the greenback due to better-than-expected macroeconomic data released on Tuesday. It added to the value of EUR/USD and pushed it towards the highest level in four weeks.
Covid-19 Fears in Play
The improved market’s risk sentiment also added to the upward momentum of the riskier currency pair EUR/USD after the global vaccination rate started to rise. Despite the rising spread of the Delta variant and the discovery of a new coronavirus variant in South Africa, the risk appetite remained strong in the market as vaccination inoculations throughout the globe accelerated.
Europe has even started giving shots of the vaccine to its public in shopping marts and supermarkets. Many countries have opened their borders to fully vaccinated people, improving the market’s risk sentiment by raising optimism related to economic recovery.
EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1786 1.1839
1.1764 1.1870
1.1732 1.1893
Pivot Point: 1.1817
EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: US NFP figures on Friday
The EUR/USD is trading sharply bullish above the 1.1800 resistance level. This resistance level was extended by a double top pattern that we can see on the 2-hour chart. Moreover, the 50-period EMA continues to support this bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair.
The closing of candles above this level could drive an additional bullish trend until the 1.1857 resistance level. On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1828 level while traders await ISM Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management. On the bearish side, the breakout of the 1.1800 support level could lead the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1749 level. The 50 days EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) is held at 1.1800, supporting a bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair.
On the flip side, the oscillator indicator Stochastic RSI holds in a buy zone, demonstrating a buying trend. Therefore, Forex trading market participants may look for a buy trade above 1.1800 with an initial target of $1.1850 and $1.1890 levels. Alternatively, sell trades can be taken below the $1.1857 level to target $ 1.1807. All the best!
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