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  • EUR/USD remains better-offered below the 200-DMA as dollar maintains shape.  
  • EUR/USD positioning drifting marginally lower but upbeat data could revive longs.  

EUR/USD has moved up from its worst levels in over a week as bulls commit to the 1.10 handle following German confidence figures. Germany’s IFO recorded a small gain in November, with the headline rising from 94.7 to 95.0, exactly in line with consensus:

“Details showed a 0.5pt improvement in expectations to 92.1 (mkt 92.5), and an essentially unchanged current assessment of 97.9 (mkt 97.9). A spokesperson from the IFO institute sounded quite cautious, noting that the manufacturing sector is still in recession, that export prospects have darkened, and that it’s too early to speak of a turnaround in the economy, but at the same time, there are signs that business will be very good this Christmas,”

analysts at TD Securities explained.  

US/Sino trade headlines continue to point to a resolution  

Markets have been fixated on developments on the trade front with China and the US working towards a so-called “Phase-One” deal. The latest headlines point to likely conclusion to 16 months of tariff wars with key negotiators engaging in a phone call that took place in recent trade between China’s Vice Premier Liu He, and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.  

A Bloomberg article stated that “the officials “reached consensus on properly resolving relevant issues” and agreed to stay in contact on the remaining points for a so-called phase one pact, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office confirmed a meeting took place, but declined to comment on the contents.” Such sentiment is bullish for risk sentiment which likely favours the euro although the dollar is also holding shape on the headlines.  

CFTC Commitments of Traders figures – net positioning only moved marginally lower

Meanwhile, CFTC Commitments of Traders figures for the week 13-19 November show speculators added shorts in all G9 currencies vs the dollar, which continues to consolidate its momentum amid trade chatter.

Analysts at ING Bank argued that “the dynamics probably reflect some skepticism around the advancement in Sino-American trade negotiations, that contributed to keep appetite for the USD supported,” noting, “EUR/USD net positioning only moved marginally lower and remains around-11% of open interest, in line with its 5-year average. The gauge (similarly to the pair itself) seems stuck in a very narrow range, with speculative investors likely waiting on more signs of a rebound in the battered Eurozone economic outlook to consider adding longs in the pair.”

EUR/USD levels

EUR/USD bulls are  committing to the 1.10 handle and analysts at Commerzbank explained that whilst it holds, “last week’s high at 1.1097 may be revisited, a rise above which would have the 1.1180 October high in its sights.”

“Above 1.1180 will target the 200-week ma at 1.1359.Below 1.0989 lies the 1.0943 78.6% retracement. Where are we wrong? It is possible that we will see one more final leg down to the base of the channel at 1.0844 and the 1.0814 Fiboretracement before a sustained recovery is seen (but this is not our favoured view).”