- EUR/USD extends the recovery above 1.1030.
- EMU final October CPI came in at 0.1% MoM and 0.7% YoY.
- US Retail Sales, Empire State index next of relevance in the calendar.
The single currency is prolonging the bounce off recent lows vs. the dollar and is now lifting EUR/USD to the 1.1030/35 band, at shouting distance from weekly tops and the key 55-day SMA.
EUR/USD now looks to US docket
The pair has regained buying interest in recent weekly lows in the 1.0990/85 band and subsequently managed to retake the 1.10 barrier and advance as far as the 1.1030/35 band at the end of the week. Immediately above emerges the key 55-day SMA and a surpass above this area is needed in order to reassert the upside pressure.
The renewed weakness around the greenback has been sustained the rebound in spot, always on the back of declining US yields in response to omnipresent concerns around the US-China ‘Phase One’ deal.
Data wise in Euroland, final inflation figures showed consumer prices rose 0.1% MoM in October and 0.7% over the last twelve months. In addition, prices excluding food and energy costs rose 0.1% inter-month and 1.1% from a year earlier.
Later in the session, all the attention will be on the release of October’s US Retail Sales along with the regional manufacturing gauge measured by the Empire State index and Industrial/Manufacturing Production figures.
What to look for around EUR
The selling mood in the euro has intensified and dragged spot to fresh 4-week lows in the sub-1.10 area, where it met dip-buyers. Renewed trade jitters gave fresh impulse to the demand for safe havens and also dragged yields lower, all undermining the upside momentum in the dollar and collaborating with the rebound in the pair. On the macro view, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.07% at 1.1028 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1037 (55-day SMA) followed by 1.1095 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21). On the downside, a breach of 1.0989 (monthly low Nov.14) would target 1.0925 (low Sep.3) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1).
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