According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, the pair could drop and test 1.1390 on a break below 1.1450.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: “EUR reversed an initial gain that touched 1.1593 before plummeting to crack the strong 1.1500 support (late NY low of 1.1463). Downward momentum has picked up considerably and the immediate risk is clearly on the downside. However, 1.1450 is a reasonably strong support and while a dip below this level would not be surprising, the next support at 1.1420 could out of reach for now. Resistance is at 1.1515 followed by 1.1550. The latter level is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday bounce in EUR”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “While we expected EUR to weaken since last Friday (28 Sep, spot at 1.1640), the pace and extent the decline in EUR continues to surprise us. We highlighted yesterday (03 Oct, spot at 1.1545) that there is chance for EUR “to weaken further towards the next support at 1.1450″ but added, “this level is unlikely to come into the picture so soon”. After the sharp drop during late NY hours, 1.1450 appears to be within reach sometime in the next 24 to 36 hours. A break of this level would shift the focus to 1.1390. Looking ahead, despite the overall negative outlook for EUR, we have reservations about the sustainability of the current weakness. In other words, we are not ready to adopt a bearish stance just yet. That said, EUR is expected to remain under pressure until it can crack the ‘key resistance’ at 1.1580 (level was at 1.1630 yesterday)”.
Share
