FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the likeliness of further strength in spot has diminished.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: “In line with expectation, EUR traded sideways yesterday and the registered range of 1.1647/1.1715 was relatively close to our anticipated range of 1.1640/1.1710. While indicators are still mostly neutral, the consolidation phase appears to be close to completion and after the recent unsuccessful attempt to break above the 1.1725/35 resistance zone, the risk appears to be greater on the downside. From here, barring a move above 1.1730 (minor resistance at 1.1715), a break of the strong 1.1640 support could lead to a swift drop to 1.1610. At this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR touched a high of 1.1715 yesterday but once again failed to maintain a toehold above 1.1700. As highlighted yesterday (19 Sep, spot at 1.1680), “EUR has to move and stay above 1.1700 within these 1 to 2 days or the prospect for further strength would diminish quickly”. While we are not ruling out another push higher, time is running out and from here, a break of 1.1640 (‘key support’ previously at 1.1605) is enough to indicate that a short-term top is in place. From a short-term perspective (see 24-hour update above), the risk appears to be greater on the downside”.
Share
