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Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook from the valuation front.

We view fair value for EUR/USD to be a 1.08-1.20 range,  depending on the model employed.  Either way, at current levels, valuation is neutral if not an outright headwind for spot,” Danske notes.

A valuation reversal (lower EUR/USD) could come from  1)  rising US real rates,  2)  fading EU optimism,  3)  a slowdown in the (global) manufacturing sector (maybe due to bottlenecks) as well as  4)  a prolonged European recovery, should the rebound prove to be weak after its initial gains have been reaped,” Danske adds.