Search ForexCrunch
  • EUR/USD reverses the initial pessimism and moves higher to 1.1650.
  • The greenback corrects lower following recent strong gains.
  • ECB’s Christine Lagarde will speak later on Monday and Wednesday.

After briefly testing the 1.1615/10 band in the last couple of sessions, EUR/USD appears to have regained the smile and is now hovering around the 1.1650 region.

EUR/USD looks to ECB, data

EUR/USD has started the week on the positive footing and climbs back to the mid-1.1600s on the back of the renewed dollar weakness and the moderate improvement in the sentiment surrounding the risk-associated universe.

In the meantime, the US political scenario will take centre stage in the first half of the week in light of the Trump-Biden presidential debate on Tuesday. On the same front, market chatter continues to look for any clues of the continuation of the discussion between US policymakers regarding an extra stimulus package (apparently worth $2.4 trillion).

In the euro docket, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak later on Monday followed by Isabel Schnabel. Additional key releases later in the week include the advanced inflation figures in the euro area, Consumer Confidence, German labour market report, final PMIs and further ECB-speak.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD is looking to extend the rebound from 2-month lows in the 1.1610 region at the end of last week. Despite the move, the pair’s outlook still remains constructive and bearish moves are deemed as corrective only. Further out, the positive bias in the euro remains underpinned by auspicious results from domestic fundamentals (which have been in turn supporting further the view of a strong economic recovery after the slump in the activity during the spring), the so far calm US-China trade front and the steady – albeit vigilant- stance from the ECB. The solid position of the EMU’s current account coupled with the favourable positioning of the speculative community also lends support to the shared currency.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.15% at 1.1646 and a breakout of 1.1709 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 rally) would target 1.1754 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.1917 (high Sep.10). On the flip side, immediate contention is seen at 1.1612 (monthly low Sep.25) seconded by 1.1495 (monthly high Mar.9) and finally 1.1447 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally).