- The pair adds to Friday’s gains near 1.1170.
- EMU Consumer Confidence, ECB’s loan figures next on tap.
- US PCE, Personal Income/Spending coming up across the pond.
The better mood around the single currency is extending into this week and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of fresh highs near 1.1170.
EUR/USD up on USD correction, looks to data
Spot trades on a firm note at the beginning of the week, challenging Friday’s highs in the 1.1170 region following mixed results from advanced US Q1 GDP. In fact, it is worth recalling that the US economy is seen expanding at an annualized 3.2% during the January-March period, although the lack of traction in inflation keeps worrying investors.
In the meantime, spot has managed to rebound from last week’s yearly lows in the proximity of the key support at 1.1100 the figure, area last visited in May 2017. However, and despite the current bounce, persistent jitters over the slowdown in the bloc vs. a solid health in the US economy are posed to keep the pair under pressure in the near/medium term.
Later in the week, US trade negotiators are expected to resume talks with their Chinese peers in Beijing and in Washington in early May, all preceding the potential Xi-Trump summit in June.
Moving forward, ECB’s M3 Money Supply and Private Loans are due next seconded by several gauges of confidence/sentiment in the euro region. Across the Atlantic, March’s inflation figures measured by the PCE and Personal Income/Spending are also due.
What to look for around EUR
The broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics are posed to rule the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with the onoging US-China trade dispute and potential US tariffs on EU products. Recent weak results from key fundamentals in the region plus a now unlikely rebound in the activity in the second half of the year have added to the prevailing concerns that the slowdown in the region could last longer that initially estimated and the ECB is therefore likely to remain ‘neutral/dovish’ for the foreseeable future (say until mid-2020?). On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections in late May, as the populist option in the form of the far-right and the far-left movements appears to keep swelling among voting countries.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is up 0.16% at 1.1157 and a breakout of 1.1174 (high Arp.26) would target 1.1230 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.1280 (55-day SMA). On the flip side, initial contention emerges at 1.1109 (2019 low Apr.26) seconded by 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017) and finally 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017).
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