EUR/USD Forecast: Breaks 1.13 amid Risk Aversion, Eying US PMIs

EUR/USD Forecast: Breaks 1.13 amid Risk Aversion, Eying US PMIs

  • The EUR/USD fell for the fourth day as sellers hit a weekly low.
  • The US dollar and gold rise as risk aversion sweep stocks, yields, and traditional safe-haven assets lower.
  • In February, the Eurozone PMI rose to a five-month high, but the absence of US traders and the negative sentiment are keeping the bears at bay.

The EUR/USD price forecast is bearish as the risk aversion remains quite high, supporting the US dollar and gold. Hence, the Euro as a risk asset suffers.

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Before Tuesday’s European session, EUR/USD is licking its wounds just above a weekly low of 1.1287. Due to geopolitical tensions over Russia-Ukraine relations, the major pair relies on the US dollar’s safe-haven demand to please the bears.

Putin’s order to send troops to eastern Ukrainian states, citing peace efforts, added to the anti-risk sentiment late Monday. Russia declared Donetsk and Lugansk independent states and signed an “accord on friendship and cooperation.”

In response, the West warned of an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine. Accordingly, the United Nations (UN) called an emergency meeting. Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo expressed regret for ordering Russian troops to conduct an alleged “peacekeeping mission” in eastern Ukraine.

Western leaders’ announcement of new sanctions against Russia added to market fears. However, Moscow has defended the latest military action, saying: “We will not allow a ‘new bloodbath’ in the Donbas. The parties must avoid increasing tensions by exercising restraint.”

Furthermore, China’s indirect warning to the United States to keep Taiwan issues in the background and recent Fed softening and ECB hawkish tone are causing EUR/USD traders to hesitate ahead of full markets. As a reflection of sentiment, the S&P 500 futures fell over 1.60 percent, while the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped seven basis points (bps) to 1.85%.

Eurozone activity improved in February, confirming recent upbeat remarks from policymakers. However, the EUR/USD sellers could be challenged by today’s German IFO data, which supports bullish arguments. On Monday, Federal Reserve Board Chair Michelle Bowman said that it is too early to predict whether rates will rise by 25 or 50 basis points in March, following Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Federal Reserve Bank president John Williams.

The EUR/USD bears may be in charge due to risk aversion and likely stronger US February PMIs.

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EUR/USD price technical forecast: Bears eying 1.1200

EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD price finds support within the weak demand zone. The pair looks vulnerable to falling below the price zone and test the 1.1200 area. The successive bearish bars and signs of weakness are appearing on the 4-hour chart. The key SMAs are pointing south while the volume data also gives no recovery clues.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.