EUR/USD edged higher last week and closed above the 1.13 line. The key events in the upcoming week are Manufacturing PMIs and CPI data. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
The global trade war has had a severe impact on the eurozone manufacturing sector. German Flash Manufacturing PMI has posted two successive readings below 50, indicative of contraction. German Final GDP has struggled, as the economy was unchanged in the fourth quarter.
On the trade front, investors remain optimistic that the U.S. and China will reach a trade deal. Months of bruising tit-for-tat tariffs have hurt global growth and led to a slowdown in China. The sides have agreed to extend talks, and there is a strong chance that the U.S. will suspend the March 1 deadline, when punishing tariffs against China were supposed to take effect.
EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- German GfK Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 7:00. Consumer confidence improved to 10.8 points in January, easily beating the estimate of 10.3 points. Another gain of 10.8 points is expected in February.
- Monetary Data: Wednesday, 9:00. M3 Money Supply improved to 4.1% in December and the forecast for January stands at 4.0%. estimate of 3.8%. Private Loans has been steadily moving higher, and the trend is expected to continue, with a forecast of 3.4% for January.
- German Import Prices: Thursday, 7:00. Import prices have been falling, with two declines in a row. A rebound is expected in January, with an estimate of 0.3%.
- German Preliminary CPI: Thursday, during the European morning with the final figure at 13:00. Inflation in the eurozone’s largest economy declined by 0.8% in January, the first decline since December 2017. The markets are expecting a rebound in February, with an estimate of 0.5%.
- French Consumer Spending: Thursday, 7:45. French consumers have cut back, with three contractions in the past four months. The estimate for January stands at 0.5%.
- French CPI: Thursday, 7:45. Inflation levels remain low, as inflation in France has not recorded a gain since September. The markets are expecting a gain of 0.4% in February.
- French GDP: Thursday, 7:45. The economy gained 0.4% in Q3, and a gain of 0.3% is expected in Q4.
- Spanish CPI: Thursday, 8:00. Inflation has been steadily falling and dropped to 1.0% in January. The estimate for February stands at 1.1%.
- Manufacturing PMIs: Friday, 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German one at 8:55, and final euro-zone number at 9:00. The Markit indices have shown a significant slowdown, especially in the manufacturing sector. This is a result of the global trade war, which has led to less demand for eurozone exports. France and Spain’s PMIs are pointing to stagnation in manufacturing, and Germany has posted two straight scores below 50, pointing to contraction. The eurozone indicator also contracted in February.
- German Unemployment Change: Friday, 8:55. Germany enjoys a consistent drop in the number of unemployed. The December reading was unusually low, with a reading of -2 thousand. The forecast for January is -5 thousand.
- Eurozone inflation: Friday, 10:00. Little change is expected in CPI levels in February. CPI Flash Estimate is expected at 1.5% and Core CPI Flash Estimate at 1.1%.
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate: Friday, 10:00. The unemployment rate improved in the second half of 2018, and is expected to remain at 7.9% in January.
* All times are GMT
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Euro/dollar started the week with gains, but showed little movement during the remainder of the week.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.1620 has held in resistance since the start of October.
1.1570 is next.
1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.
1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier. 1.1345 was a swing low in mid-January.
1.1290 was a low point around the same period of time. 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018 and the 2018 low of 1.1215 is next. This is followed by 1.1119.
The final support level for now is 1.1046.
I remain neutral on EUR/USD
Eurozone and German data has been lukewarm in recent weeks, as the global trade war has weighed on the eurozone. At the same time, higher risk appetite as seen investors move away from the U.S. dollar, and this has helped the euro. If the upcoming PMI releases surprise the markets, we could see some volatility from the euro.
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