EUR/USD Forecast May 13-17 -Investors eye German GDP, inflation data

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EUR/USD posted slight gains last week. The upcoming week is busy, with Germany and the eurozone releasing GDP and consumer inflation numbers. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Eurozone services PMIs indicated expansion in April. German services PMI improved to 55.7, just above the estimate of 55.6. This marked the strongest score since September. The eurozone release slowed to 52.8, but still beat the forecast of 52.5. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence jumped to 5.3, well above the estimate of 1.1. As well, retail sales slowed to 0.0%, above the estimate of -0.1%.

The European Commission sharply downgraded its 2019 growth forecasts for Germany, from 1.1% in February to 0.5%. The report noted that the downside risks to the eurozone remain “prominent”, and noted that deadlines for the U.S-China trade talks and Brexit had come and passed, leaving significant uncertainty about the economic outlook. The report warned that “an escalation of trade tensions could prove to be a major shock.” Despite the weak German forecast and pessimistic tone of the report, the euro did not lose ground.

In the U.S, the focus was on inflation. The producer price index slowed to 0.2% in April, down from 0.6% a month earlier. The core release also lost ground, dropping from 0.3% to 0.1%. This was followed by consumer inflation reports. CPI dropped from 0.4% to 0.3%, shy of the estimate of 0.4%. The core release remained stuck at 0.1%, short of the estimate of 0.2%.

President Donald Trump made good on his tariff threat, as the U.S. raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods on Friday, from 10% to 25%. Trump announced the move at the start of the week, which sent shock waves across equity markets during the week.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iBInoMaw/

  1. German CPI: Tuesday, 6:00. CPI remained unchanged at 0.4% in March, matching the forecast. The markets are predicting a sharp gain of 1.0% in April. If the estimate is on the mark, the euro could gain ground.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Tuesday, 9:00. After a string of declines, investors and analysts are showing some optimism about the economic outlook. The indicator improved to 3.1 in April, beating the estimate of 0.9. The upward trend is expected to continue in May, with a forecast of 5.1 points. The eurozone release is expected to climb to 5.0.
  3. German Preliminary GDP: Wednesday, 6:00. The eurozone’s largest economy was flat in Q4 of 2018, with a reading of 0.0%. This missed the estimate of 0.1%. Better news is expected for Q1, with an estimate of 0.4%.
  4. French CPI: Wednesday, 6:45. French inflation jumped to 0.8% in March, matching the forecast. This marked the highest level in 12 months. However, inflation is expected to slow to 0.2% in April.
  5. Eurozone Flash GDP: Wednesday, 9:00. The second estimate of first-quarter GDP is expected to post a gain of 0.4%, unchanged from the initial estimate earlier in May.
  6. Eurozone Trade Balance: Thursday, 9:00. The eurozone trade surplus has widened for four successive months, climbing to EUR 19.5 billion in February. The estimate for March stands at EUR 19.0 billion.
  7. Eurozone CPI Data: The markets are predicting an improvement in inflation in April. CPI is expected to improve from 1.4% to 1.7%, while the core release is projected to improve to 1.2%, compared to 0.8% in March.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1620 has held in resistance since the start of October.

1.1570 is next.

1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier. This is followed by 1.1345.

1.1290 is the next resistance line. Close by, 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018.

1.1215 remained relevant. It starts the week as a weak support line.

1.1119 (mentioned last week) is the next support level.

1.1025 was a cap back in May 2017.

1.0950 is the next support level.

1.0870 was a swing high in December 2017.

1.0820 is the final support line for now.

I am neutral on EUR/USD

The fortunes of the euro could well depend on the strength of German GDP and CPI releases. Investors remain concerned about the strength of the German economy and could give a thumbs-down to the euro if German data is weaker than expected.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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