EUR/USD Forecast May 18-22 – Investors Eye European PMIs, Consumer Inflation

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EUR/USD had an uneventful week, as the pair stayed close to the 1.08 level. The upcoming week has five events. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
Eurozone industrial production plunged by 11.3% in March, as manufacturing as been hit hard by the Corvid-19 pandemic. German CPI accelerated to 0.4% in April, up from 0.1% a month earlier. Germany’s economy contracted by 2.2% in Q4, after a loss of 0.1% in Q3. In the eurozone, second-estimate GDP declined by 3.8%, confirming the initial read.
In the U.S., inflation tanked in April, as the economy continues to buckle under the weight of the Corvid-19 pandemic. CPI declined by 0.8%, down from -0.4% a month earlier. The core read fell by 0.4%, down from -0.1% in the previous release. Both figures missed their estimates. Unemployment claims continue to fall and dropped below 3 million last week, with a release of 2.98 million. Still, this missed the estimate of 2.5 million. Retail sales were a disaster in April – the headline figure fell by 16.4%, while the core read declined by 17.2 percent. Analysts had projected declines of -12.0% for the headline and 16.4% for the core releases.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Wednesday, 9:00. After a dismal reading of -49.5 in March, the indicator rebounded sharply and soared to 28.2 points. The April estimate stands at 30.0. It was a similar story for the all-eurozone indicator, which jumped to 25.2, crushing the estimate of -38.2 points. The April forecast stands at 27.4 points.
  2. Eurozone Current Account: Wednesday, 8:00. The eurozone continues to post large current account surpluses. The surplus widened to EUR 40.2 billion, up from EUR 34.7 billion a month earlier. This figure was the largest surplus in more than 11 years. Will the upward trend continue?
  3. Eurozone Inflation: Wednesday, 9:00. Inflation has fallen sharply as the eurozone economy has been paralyzed by the Covid-19 outbreak. The initial April read fell to 0.4%, and the final reading is expected to confirm this figure.
  4. Eurozone Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. Consumers are deeply pessimistic about economic conditions, and the indicator slumped to -23 in March, down from -12 a month earlier. This marked the lowest reading since 2013. The April estimate stands at -23 points.
  5. Eurozone PMIs: Friday, 7:15 in France, 7:30 in Germany, and 8:00 for the whole eurozone. The services sector has been in free-fall, with sharp contractions reported across the eurozone in April. The German PMI came in at 16.2, the eurozone release was 12.0, and the French reading stood at 10.2. The initial estimates for May are 26.2 for Germany, 23.9 for the eurozone and 28.8 for France. The manufacturing sector is in better shape, but still showing contraction, with readings well below the 50-level, which separates contraction from expansion. The German PMI came in at 34.5, the eurozone at 33.4 and the French release at 31.5. The forecast for the initial reads for May are 39.0 for Germany, 38.0 for the eurozone and 35.6 for France.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.1215, which has held since mid-January. 1.1119 is next.

1.1025 (mentioned last week) has held in resistance since early April.

The round number of 1.0900 follows.

1.0829 is an immediate resistance line.

The round number of 1.07 is providing support. This line saw action in mid-March, when EUR/USD showed strong volatility.

1.0620 is protecting the 1.06 level.

1.05 is the final support level for now.

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I remain bearish on EUR/USD

German and eurozone GDP numbers have been soft, reflecting deteriorating conditions across the eurozone due to the Covid-19 outbreak. Investors are well aware of the difficult situation in Europe, and if this week’s numbers are weaker than projected, the euro could head lower.

Further reading:

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.