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  • EUR/USD unexpectedly rose on Wednesday.
  • Powell left a hint of monetary policy tightening in his yesterday’s testimony.
  • There’s another Powell’s testimony and US unemployment claims data due on the day.
  • Technically, the pair is mildly bullish.

During the third trading day of the new week, the EUR/USD forecast was overshadowed as it traded quite well, given that the price was moving in one direction for almost the whole day. However, there are several nuances here.

Perhaps it was just a round of upward movement, not based on anything.  On the other hand, this move was triggered by the day before yesterday’s US inflation report.  As we have already said, growing inflation is a negative factor for the currency, but nevertheless, the day before yesterday, the US Dollar showed strength.  In general, one way or another, but the EUR/USD pair was in an upward movement yesterday.

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Powell hinted at the possible start of the discussion of curtailing the stimulus program among members of the monetary committee. However, the most interesting thing is that in his later statements, he repeatedly drew attention to the fact that the Fed will not tighten monetary policy just because inflation is growing.

The Fed Chair made it clear that the labor market, far from full recovery, is of higher priority.  Thus, the American currency seems to have additional market support since the Fed’s chances to announce the curtailment of the QE program is growing at the same rate as inflation in the United States.

But at the same time, Powell himself has regularly stated that inflation is an important indicator throughout the last year, but not a key one.  Thus, we believe that in the coming months, the Fed will not agree to the completion of the QE program, which means that the US Dollar remains under pressure globally. However, it may continue to moderately grow in the medium term.

There are no major events or publications scheduled in the European session on Thursday.  Only in the evening will Jerome Powell make a speech in the US Congress.  However, this will be the second time in Congress in two days, just before a different committee.  Thus, the text of the Fed’s report is unlikely to change.  And all the most interesting will become known in the next few hours.  The United States will also publish a report on unemployment claims, but we believe there will be no reaction.

EUR/USD technical forecast: Can bulls keep dominance?

The EUR/USD price is now consolidating in a tight range with very low volume. This is natural to happen when we see an up bar with increasing volume breaking a stiff resistance. Apparently, bulls have taken back control as the price is now above the descending trendline. But, the key 20 and 50 period moving averages on the 4-hour chart are still capping the gains. A clear forex signal to buy the pair comes after breaking above the key MAs.

EUR/USD forecast on 4-hour chart
EUR/USD forecast on 4-hour chart

Support levels:

S1 – 1.1780

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1658

Resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1902

R3 – 1.1963

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