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  • The euro is being hampered by concerns about the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine situation.
  • Euro bears intact as Macron and Le pen go head-to-head.
  • The dollar was supported by the Fed’s hawkish stance and rising US bond rates, which capped gains.

At the start of the London session, the EUR/USD forecast remains negative despite the gains as broader sentiment remains glued to politics.

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Economy will suffer

Investors are afraid that the European economy, which depends heavily on Russia for energy, would bear the brunt of the Ukraine crisis’s spillover effects.

Aside from that, the underlying strong positive sentiment around the greenback failed to help the EUR/USD pair prosper from its rise to 1.0925.

The French affair

The EUR/USD pair began the new week on a high note as incumbent President Macron defeated Marine Le Pen by just over 4% of the vote in the first round of voting, with the two candidates set to face off again on April 24.

However, several variables conspired to keep any additional advances for the EUR/USD pair at bay, attracting new sellers at higher levels.

Greenback in green

The dollar rose to its highest level since May 2020, bolstered by the Fed’s aggressive stance.

The 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 2.76 percent on Monday morning, but the 5-year and 30-year rates stayed inverted.

Indeed, according to the minutes of the March FOMC meeting released last week, several participants were prepared to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points in the coming sessions, citing concerns about rising inflationary pressures.

EUR/USD data events ahead

On Tuesday, the US consumer price index will be released, coupled with the European Central Bank’s decision on Thursday, which will influence the EUR/USD pair’s near-term trend.

What’s next to watch for EUR/USD forecast?

Investors may stop putting aggressive wagers and sit on the sidelines ahead of this week’s significant data/event concerns, so the downside is cushioned.

EUR/USD forecast via daily open interest

eur/usd forecast

The EUR/USD price went down on Friday while the daily open interest rose. It shows a bearish bias for the pair.

EUR/USD technical forecast: Downside bias

eur/usd forecast The EUR/USD price is trying to stay above the 1.0900 level. The 4-hour chart shows a bearish crossover of 100 and 200 SMAs. The price is now above 20 SMA, trying to go above 50 SMA. It signifies a short-term bullish trend.

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The next key resistance level for the Fiber is 1.0924. If the price goes above this level, it can further move towards 1.0956.

On the flip side, the next support is at 1.0845. If the price declines below this level, we can see it further drifting towards the 1.0813 level.

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