Search ForexCrunch
  • The pair seems to have found support near 1.1270.
  • The greenback clinches to the 97.00 handle so far.
  • Brexit, trade, Powell to drive sentiment today.

Finally some respite for the single currency. After printing fresh 2019 lows in the 1.1270 region at the beginning of the week, EUR/USD has managed to attract some attention and is now up smalls around 1.1280/90.

EUR/USD looks to risk trends, data

The pair closed in the red territory in six consecutive sessions after finally meeting some support in the 1.1270/65 band, or 2019 lows, on Monday.

The sour sentiment surrounding the riskier assets and trade jitters has been lending extra oxygen to the greenback on the broader scenario. On the more domestic arena, EUR has been suffering the recent fresh forecasts for growth and inflation from the ECB and the European Commission in combination with speculations of no action from the central bank on rates this year.

There are no events scheduled today in Euroland, although attention has once again shifted to the UK and the Brexit negotiations. Across the ocean, JOLTs Job Openings, Powell’s speech and the API report are all coming up next.

What to look for around EUR/USD

Both the ECB and European Commission are now confirming the slowdown in the euro bloc following their recent revised projections for economic growth and inflation, acknowledging at the same time that the ongoing deceleration in fundamentals could be longer than expected. Adding to this picture, Germany could have likely entered into recession in Q4, while the apparent recovery in the autos sector in recent months would not be enough to spark the immediate rebound in the first economy of the bloc. In addition, political concerns remain well and sound following the recent Italy-France dispute with the ‘yellow-vests’ in centre stage ahead of the key EU parliamentary elections in May. All in all, it seems the start of the ECB tightening cycle has to wait longer within the current state of things in the region and abroad, leaving EUR exposed to a bumpy road ahead and prone to further weakness.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.06% at 1.1282 facing the next hurdle at 1.1356 (23.6% Fibo of the September-November drop) seconded by 1.1385 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1419 (100-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1267 (2019 low Feb.11) would target 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).