EUR/USD has consolidated ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls and next week’s Industrial Production.
1.1176 and 1.1412 are still the key levels heading into the Nonfarm Payrolls.
Overnight holiday markets left the FX space subdued, but EUR/USD was a focus considering the doves that are circulating above the EZ economy. For the meantime, though the focus will be back on the Dollar and whether the jobs report in itself will be enough to balance the scales at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting this month, 30-31 July. Today’s Nonfarm Payrolls could leave the dollar vulnerable to a deteriorating global macro and/or geopolitical backdrop and therefore will attract even more attention than usual. The May number was a very weak +75k (the Jan-April average was +195k). The markets are expecting a +160k print, but given how weak last months were, it could swing one way or the other.
Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Three scenarios for the EUR/USD reaction as the Fed figures out its loosening strategy
EZ Services sector in deterioration
Overnight, the Retail Sales data declined by 0.3% month-on-month in May, which should make the ECB on edge again ahead of next week’s Industrial Production figures for the eurozone and that is going to be a major event and maybe the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
EUR/USD levels
From a technical point of view, Valeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained that the pair continues consolidating sub-1.1300, finding buyers on approaches to the 61.8% retracement of its latest bullish run at 1.1270, the immediate support. So far this week, sellers have rejected advances near the 38.2% retracement of the same rally at 1.1325:
The short-term picture is neutral-to-bearish as, in the 4 hours chart, the pair is developing below its 20 and 100 SMA, with the shorter one crossing below the larger. The Momentum indicator heads nowhere around its 100 level, while the RSI indicator is also flat, but around 38, skewing the risk to the downside.
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