EUR/USD holding on above 1.1200, focus stays on FOMC, Powell
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EUR/USD holding on above 1.1200, focus stays on FOMC, Powell

  • EUR/USD remains volatile in the low-1.1200s.
  • The greenback stays sidelined near daily highs.
  • Chief Powell’s testimony, FOMC minutes next of relevance.

EUR/USD lost some upside momentum after being rejected from the 55-day SMA in the 1.1230 region.

EUR/USD now looks to data

The pair navigates the lower end of the recent range and closer to last week’s lows in the vicinity of 1.1200 the figure, all amidst the persistent positive note surrounding the buck and rising cautiousness ahead of key events later in the week.

In addition, investors have scaled down their perception of a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed at this month’s meeting and are now anticipating a smaller cut, say 25 bps, in response to the solid prints from June’s labour market report.

Also adding extra downside pressure to EUR, the Sentix Index came in at -5.8 for the current month, coming in short of expectations and extending the previous drop. Earlier, German trade surplus widened more than forecasted during May.

Moving forward, Fed’s Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate on Wednesday seconded by the release of the FOMC minutes, while the publication of June’s inflation figures is due on Thursday.

What to look for around EUR

The single currency have come under strong selling pressure on the back of renewed and increasing speculations of another wave of monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank in the near term, via interest rate cuts and the resumption of the QE programme. Furthermore, the downside in EUR has intensified after the recent breakdown of the critical 200-day SMA in the 1.1330 region, opening the door to extra losses in the short-term horizon. Also weighing on the currency, the dovish stance from the ECB appears reinforced by the recent appointment of ex-IMF’s C.Lagarde to succeed M.Draghi. On the macro scenario, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and it also reinforces the current accommodative attitude of the central bank.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.05% at 1.1218 and faces the next down barrier at 1.1207 (monthly low Jul.5) followed by 1.1181 (low Jun.18) and finally 1.1106 (2019 low May 23). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1258 (100-day SMA) would target 1.1330 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1412 (high Jun.25).

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