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EUR/USD has been under pressure due to Europe’s slow vaccination campaign and dollar strength.   Nonfarm Payrolls and Biden set to deal another blow to virus-ravaged euro as March draws to an end.  

Key quotes  

“As the virus continues raging in the old continent, statistics in Germany, France, Italy and Spain remain critical to the euro. The uptrend will likely continue for at least another week, as recent measures take time to bring down the caseload. Moreover, the population is frustrated and is likely to flout the rules.”  

“Vaccine deliveries and distribution are also closely watched amid the recent rows with Britain and AstraZeneca. The EU is set to receive new deliveries from all companies during April. Any updates may move markets. So far, Europe’s campaign has been hobbled by delays.”  

“The highlight of the economic calendar is the initial release of Consumer Price Index statistics for March, which are set to remain subdued despite the recent bump. Markit’s final manufacturing PMIs are also of interest. It is essential to note that most of Europe will be on holiday on Good Friday, and trading volume may already begin to thin down on Thursday.”  

“New taxes for Uncle Sam? That is the question on many investors’ minds as they await Biden’s economic speech on Tuesday. He is set to lay out infrastructure plans, which may include details on both spending and income. Markets may shiver in response to higher taxation and that would boost the safe-haven dollar.”  

“A two-pronged legislative program that does not include new taxes in its first phase will likely be welcomed by Wall Street. Regarding infrastructure, that would undoubtedly be positive for the economy and may even push inflation higher and the Fed to raise rates sooner- a dollar positive move. All in all, it seems like a win-win situation for the greenback.

“Good Friday features the Nonfarm Payrolls report for March, with expectations rising to half a million new positions after February’s robust jump of 379,000 jobs. As many parts of the world will be away for Easter, thin liquidity may cause choppier reactions than usual.”