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  • EUR/USD is currently reporting a moderate monthly loss. The pair fell more than 2% in July.  
  • A big beat on German retail sales data is needed to avert monthly loss.
  • The pair may also take cues from the Eurozone CPI and US personal spending figures.  

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1044, representing a 0.28% drop on the opening price of 1.1075 seen on Aug. 1.

If the pair remains below 1.1075 till today’s New York close, then it would be the second straight monthly loss. It is worth noting that the pair fell 2.58% in July.

Focus on German retail sales and Eurozone CPI

The German data due at 06:00 GMT is expected to show the consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, fell 1% month-on-month in July, having risen by 3.5% in June.

An economic recession is already knocking at the German economy’s door, courtesy of a slowdown in exports. These recession fears would be bolstered if retail sales (domestic demand) print below estimate.

So, EUR/USD could end up with a bigger monthly loss that the 0.28% drop seen at press time.

The common currency, however, could end the month on a flat-to-positive note if both the German retail sales and the Eurozone consumer price index for August beats estimates.

While the German spending may have ticked higher due to the holiday season, the probability of the Eurozone CPI printing above estimates is low. After all, Germany’s inflation slowed in August.

Post-Eurozone data, the focus will shift to the US personal spending data, due at 12:30 GMT.

Technical levels