EUR/USD looks consolidative very near term – UOB

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain constructive on EUR/USD, although some consolidation is likely in the next sessions.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday “the rally is deep in overbought territory and further sustained gain is not likely”. We added, “EUR is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways within a 1.1130/1.1180 range”. EUR subsequently traded between 1.1135 and 1.1179, relatively close to our expected sideway-trading range. The current movement is still viewed as part of a consolidation phase even though the slightly weakened underlying tone suggests a lower trading range of 1.1120/1.1170″.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We maintain our positive outlook for EUR and highlighted last Friday (18 Oct, spot at 1.1120) that “the focus is firmly at the 1.1165 resistance now”. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1172 before ending the day (and the week) on a strong note (NY close of 1.1169, +0.42%). The current EUR rally still appears ‘healthy’ and a move above 1.1200 would not be surprising but 1.1250 is a much stronger resistance and may not yield as easily. On the downside, only a break of 1.1070 (‘strong support’ level slightly higher than 1.1050 previously) would indicate that the current positive phase in EUR that started more than a week ago (see annotations in chart below) has run its course”.