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  • Trade surplus shrinks in the euro area.
  • Increase in retails sales in the U.S. meets expectations.
  • US Dollar Index stays near the mid-point of the one-month-old range.

The EUR/USD pair traded in a relatively tight 50-pip range on Monday as today’s macroeconomic data releases failed to receive a significant enough reaction from the market to shift the pair’s near-term neutral outlook. As we are approaching the end of the day, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1712, up 0.22%, or 26 pips, on the day.

Earlier today, the data from the euro area showed that the trade surplus (seasonally adjusted) decreased to €16.9 billion in May from €18.1 billion to fall short of the market expectation of €17.6 billion. Nonetheless, the shared currency didn’t come under a noticeable  selling pressure despite the dismal data and left the EUR/USD pair at the mercy of the USD valuation.

The US Dollar Index, which seemed to be staying quiet around the 94.50 mark during the first half of the day, lost its traction and dropped to a daily low at 94.15 to allow the EUR/USD pair to rise above the 1.17 mark. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was down 0.15% on the day at 94.28.

The U.S. Census Bureau on Monday reported that retail sales in June increased by 0.5% to $506.8 billion to come in line with the experts’ estimate. A separate report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed that the manufacturing activity in the NY area in July was expected to expand  at a slower pace than it did in June with the Empire State Manufacturing Index easing to 22.6 from 25 in June.

There won’t be any macroeconomic data releases from the euro area on Tuesday and investors will be watching the capacity utilization and industrial production figures from the United States for a fresh catalyst.

Technical outlook

The initial support for the pair aligns at 1.1675 (20-DMA/daily low) ahead of 1.1615 (Jul. 13 low) and 1.1530 (Jun. 28 low). On the upside, resistances could be seen at 1.1790 (Jul. 9 high), 1.1850 (Jun. 14 high) and 1.1925 (100-DMA).