- EUR/USD trims losses after testing the 1.1740/30 band.
- US Initial Claims failed to meet expectations last week.
- EMU’s final CPI figures matched the preliminary readings in August.
After printing fresh monthly lows in the vicinity of 1.1740 earlier in the session, EUR/USD has managed to regain the smile and retake the 1.18 neighbourhood.
EUR/USD rebounds from 1.1740
EUR/USD remains on the defensive albeit above new monthly lows near 1.1740, always on the back of the renewed demand for the greenback and particularly after the Federal Reserve did not sounded as dovish as initially expected.
Indeed, the FOMC gave quite a positive assessment of the economic recovery in the US economy in spite of forecasting low interest rates for at least 2024. The Committee, however, estimated that the economic activity could reach pre-COVID19 levels by end of 2021.
In the domestic docket, EMU’s final headline CPI contracted 0.2% YoY in August and the core CPI rose 0.4% from a year earlier.
Data in the US calendar showed Initial Claims rose by 860K WoW, the Philly Fed matched forecasts at 15.0 in September and Housing Starts and Building Permits missed consensus in August.
What to look for around EUR
EUR/USD dropped and recorded fresh monthly lows near 1.1740 following the FOMC gathering on Wednesday. Despite the move, the pair’s outlook remains positive and bouts of weakness are so far deemed as short-lived and look contained. In addition, the improved sentiment in the risk-associated universe, auspicious results from domestic fundamentals – which have been in turn supporting further the view of a strong economic recovery following the coronavirus crisis – as well as a calmer US-China trade front are all underpinning the constructive view on the single currency. The solid positive stance in the speculative community, the latest message from the ECB and the euro area’s current account position also collaborate with this view on the currency.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is losing 0.08% at 1.1805 and faces the next support at 1.1737 (monthly low Sep.17) seconded by 1.1709 (38.2% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1695 (monthly low Aug.3). On the other hand, a break above 1.1965 (monthly high Aug.18) would target 1.2011 (2020 high Sep.1) en route to 1.2032 (23.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally).
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