EUR/USD has been frustrating many traders for some time. This is no coincidence: the month has been quite tight in terms of volatility.
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and notes that July 2018 is on track to be third smallest monthly range for EUR/USD since the start of 1999, unless prices make a sizeable move by end of today (above 1.1791 or below 1.1575).
“June 2014 and September 2016 were slightly smaller and the 216bp range is 40% of the monthly average. The USD/JPY range is 60% of the monthly average over the same period but that is ‘only’ the 34th smallest of 235.
The EUR/GBP range is merely the 46th smallest. Rising FX trading volumes contrast with a lack of G10FX volatility (though there’s plenty of EMFX vol to make up for that). As for EUR/USD, it still looks like its forming a base,” SocGen argues.
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