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  • EUR/USD is on track to end 2019 with a 2% loss.
  • Trade optimism helped EUR/USD regain poise in the fourth quarter.  
  • A monthly close above November’s high would confirm a bullish breakout.

EUR/USD looks set to end 2019 on a negative note.  

The currency pair is currently trading near 1.12, representing a 2.11% drop from where it was trading on Jan. 1. The single currency fell 4.66% in 2018.  

The 2019 loss would have been bigger had the pair remained near lows below 1.09 registered on Oct. 1.  

EUR gained ground in the fourth quarter

The single currency is on track to end the fourth quarter with a 2.81 percent gain.  

The continued easing of the US-China trade tensions likely helped the euro regain poise, having suffered a 4.14% slide in the third quarter.  

Further, signs of tentative bottoming out of the German economy and the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s call for more fiscal support possibly added to bullish pressures.  

Monthly close pivotal

As discussed in Asia, the pair needs to close Tuesday above November’s high of 1.1175. That would confirm a bullish breakout on the monthly chart.  

A bullish close looks likely, courtesy of trade optimism. The South China Morning Post on Monday reported that the US and China could sign the “phase one” trade deal as early as this week.  

Also, gold has jumped to fresh three-month highs above $1,520, signaling tough times ahead for the greenback.  

Technical levels