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  • EUR/USD found some bids on Monday after the week ended with a bearish pullback.
  • Upbear German retail sales data can provide support to the Euro.
  • Fed’s dovishness and Biden’s stimulus can trigger reflation fears.

The EUR/USD outlook is mild bullish in the short term. The EUR/USD pair reversed some of the losses incurred on Friday. As a result, the pair has found some bids around 1.1870 ahead of the European session on Monday.

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The last week came up with the heaviest gains for the Euro as mixed US data and Fed’s silence on tapering favored the bulls. In addition, the German retail sales figures have exceeded expectations of 2% with a monthly number at 4.2%. This can further lend support to the Euro.

However, traders are still cautious as US ISM manufacturing PMI and then US President’s infrastructure spending bill in the Senate.

Market participants expect no sooner rate hike by Fed as the second-quarter GDP of the US and core PCE price index numbers missed the expectations. However, we cannot ignore the activity numbers as they are still healthy. Moreover, the US health official has already ruled out any chance of another lockdown. This keeps the traders interesting in the employment data due on Friday.

On the other hand, policymakers are positive about passing Biden’s stimulus bill as it is now on the floor of the Senate. But unfortunately, this can permeate more liquidity and trigger reflation fears.

The ECB has reckoned the need to dump monetary policy adjustment as the Delta variant keeps pressure on the European economy. However, Germany reinforces tightening the monetary policy.

As we can observe from the market reaction during the Asian session, the market sentiment is slightly positive. However, the US yields are still pressured around 1.23, keeping the Greenback outlook a little deteriorated.

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EUR/USD technical outlook: Are bulls active now?

The EUR/USD fell back to the broken sideways channel which is now acting as a support level. The level coincides with the 20-period SMA as well. For now, the 200-period SMA is an interim resistance followed by the Friday tops at 1.1907.

On the flip side, 1.1860 (broken sideways channel) is strong support, followed by the 50-period SMA at 1.1835. The volume data shows the Monday’s minor up wave lacks follow-through momentum.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart outlook
EUR/USD 4-hour chart outlook

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