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  • A lack of risk is holding back EUR/USD at the start of the week.
  • An expected change in the ECB policy may support the Euro.
  • News on Russia, the Fed, and the US dominate the week.

Despite Wall Street’s bearish close on Friday, the EUR/USD outlook is under pressure to start the week, falling to 1.1332 from a high of 1.1345 as the risk-off sentiment continues. The Asian markets are lower on Monday as the Federal Reserve is expected to confirm that it will soon begin withdrawing the huge amounts of liquidity that have flooded stock markets for years.

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In addition, Russia’s attack on Ukraine is causing concern on financial markets, as reported in weekend headlines.

According to the New York Times, Joe Biden is considering sending tens of thousands of American troops to NATO allies in Europe, along with warships and aircraft. As a result, MSCI Asia-Pacific, the broadest stock index outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), fell 0.1%, and Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.0%.

FOMC in the spotlight

As we approach the FOMC announcement this week, markets are trading cautiously. Some market participants predict the Fed will end quantitative easing next week, but analysts at ANZ Bank doubt this will be the case.

“Additionally, we doubt that the Fed will begin tightening policy with a hike of 50 basis points. The markets could stabilize if the Fed isn’t as hawkish as many fear. Chairman Powell will likely discuss quantitative tightening (QT), although a final decision may not yet have been made.

From a sequencing perspective, it might be too draconian to signal the end of QE before rates begin to rise.”

Furthermore, higher borrowing costs and more attractive bond yields put pressure on equity markets, causing risk aversion and thus a bearish outlook for currencies like the Euro.

In addition to the Fed, US gross domestic product will be released for the December quarter this week. Omicron is projected to grow by 5.4% annually before slowing.

A focus for the Euro will also be on oil prices amid inflationary pressures that could harm the economy, along with sky-high prices for gas imported from Russia. Oil prices have risen for five consecutive weeks, reaching a seven-year high. The European Central Bank will remain skeptical about this trend.

As of yet, the ECB has sought to counter speculation that it might back away from its dovish policy. According to Rabobank analysts, ECB President Lagarde said that the bank had “every reason” not to react as strongly as the Fed. Eurozone CPI inflation is clearly weaker, and the recovery is not as quick.

Markets expect interest rates to rise slightly in the second half of the year, with even more tightening expected in the following year. Considering the short Euro in the market, a renewed focus on the prospects for a change in ECB policy may boost the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD price technical outlook: Key SMAs keeping pressure

eur/usd outlook

The EUR/USD price had dropped below the 20-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the pair is wobbling around the support of 1.1330 as well. Any plunge below the 1.1300 mark will exacerbate the selling towards 1.1260.

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It is clear from the chart that the price found rejection from the confluence of 50-period and 200-period SMAs. Therefore, as long as the price stays below the SMAs, it will attract more selling. However, the volume data is still not clear in favor of either direction.

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