Search ForexCrunch
  • Worries over global inflation are pushing the dollar higher.
  • Euro-area inflation data is putting pressure on the ECB.
  • The EUR/USD bears returned on the charts.

The EUR/USD outlook turned slightly bearish on Wednesday as it retreated after hitting a high of 1.0787. The move is attributed to fears of a dovish ECB stance. On the other hand, the dollar index continued its Tuesday rally as Treasury yields soared and worries over global inflation flared.

-Are you interested in learning about forex indicators? Click here for details- 

Inflation in the eurozone for May rose to 8.1% from April’s 7.4%. This rise caused a lot of chaos on Tuesday as ECB policymakers sparred over the size of upcoming rate hikes. The ECB has planned gradual rate hikes in July and September, but markets doubt the 25bps hikes will be enough to dent the current inflation after Tuesday’s inflation data.

On Tuesday, Christoph Weil, a Commerzbank economist, said the inflation problem in the euro area was getting worse, and it would pressure the ECB to end its ultra-loose monetary policy.

“We mechanically update our euro area inflation forecast, and now expect euro area core inflation to peak at 3.9% year-on-year in June and headline inflation to peak at 9.3% year-on-year in September,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

EUR/USD key events today

Later in the day, investors expect German Manufacturing PMI to go up from 54.6 to 54.7. They will also be listening to ECB members who are set to speak today, especially president Lagarde who might give investors an idea of how the ECB will react to the recent rise in inflation.

In the US, investors expect the ISM Manufacturing PMI to drop from 55.4 to 54.5 and the JOLTs job openings for April to go down from 11.549M to 11.400M.

EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears returning to the market

EUR/USD outlook

The 4-hour chart shows the price is trying to break below the 30-SMA and 1.0700 but is experiencing some support. A bearish divergence signaled weakness in the move up.

-Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details-

The price failed to reach the 1.0800 level and was pushed lower. Later in the day, we will be looking out for a clean break below the SMA to confirm bears’ return in this market. The RSI reading will also have to go below 30 to confirm the end of the bullish market.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money