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  • EUR/USD cut weekly gains during a 3-week uptrend on Good Friday.
  • US figures are affecting Federal Reserve interest rates, favoring euro buyers.
  • Recession fears and geopolitical headlines spur EUR/USD buyers ahead of key US jobs data.

The EUR/USD outlook is broadly bullish as the US dollar stays lower amid poor economic figures and Fed’s potential pause in the hike cycle. The pair is trading at 1.0920 at the time of writing.

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Bullish EUR/USD traders take a breather ahead of US jobs data early Friday. Meanwhile, the Europaar also has to deal with Good Friday holidays in major Western markets, including Europe.

Even with the recent recession woes, the European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a relatively more hawkish tone than the Federal Reserve (Fed).

In contrast to their US counterparts, the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks seem to be on the sidelines after the latest data from Germany and the Eurozone.

While market expectations were -2.7% and -1.6%, German industrial production (IP) rose 0.6% y/y in February. A 0.1% increase over expectations from 3.7% to 2.0% was also noted for the monthly numbers, up from 3.7% to 2.0%. German industrial orders in February improved to -5.7% y/y from -12.0, a downward revision of previous forecasts and -10.5% of market expectations, while rising 4.0% y/y over the previous month.

Key events for the EUR/USD ahead

In light of recent weak US jobs data and hopes that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates, today’s March US jobs report is crucial, but Good Friday will likely restrict the EUR/USD pair’s reaction to it.

According to market expectations, the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will fall from 311k to 240k, and the unemployment rate will remain at 3.6%. This is especially interesting because average hourly earnings are expected to be mixed.

EUR/USD price technical outlook: Lacking volatility

EUR/USD price technical outlook
EUR/USD technical outlook on 4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart of the EUR/USD pair seems bullish as the price is broadly supported above the 30-period SMA. However, the market lacks any follow-through momentum due to thin liquidity on the day.

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After marking a swing high around 1.0975, the pair retreats and wobbles just above the 1.0900 handle. As of now, there is no obvious trend in the market. Therefore, it is prudent to wait for a clear directional bias.

The RSI oscillator is also lying flat around the 50 level. It means the market is looking for a catalyst to trigger the action.

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