EUR/USD Outlook: Upbeat US PPI Weighing on Euro

• US producer prices (PPI) increased by 0.3% last month, beating forecasts.
• Markets are awaiting the US inflation report.
• The ECB is also expected to hike rates by 50bps this week.

Today’s EUR/USD outlook is bearish. On Monday, the dollar rose little against the Euro as US producer inflation data for November came in somewhat hotter than anticipated, supporting the Federal Reserve’s case for continuing interest rate increases, although at a slower speed.

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According to data, US producer prices (PPI) increased by 0.3% last month, beating the 0.2% expectation of economists surveyed by Reuters.

Although the PPI report indicated that the overall trend in inflation was decreasing, it increased market investors’ worries that this week’s consumer price inflation report will similarly come as a surprise. It will be released right before the Fed’s interest rate decision.

As it battles decades-high inflation, the US central bank has been raising interest rates at the quickest rate since the 1980s. However, chair Jerome Powell suggested that the rate hikes may slow down as early as December last month.

Next week, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will also reveal their interest rate decisions. The markets anticipate that they will follow the Fed in slowing the rate hike pace, with a total increase of 0.5 percentage points.

In a note, currency experts at MUFG said that as markets begin to factor in the possibility of a peak in interest rates early next year, volatility levels for major currencies have fallen back around their long-run average.

EUR/USD key events today

There won’t be any big news releases from the US or the eurozone. Therefore, the market will probably consolidate.

EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears might retest range support at 1.0450

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we see a range with support at 1.0450 and resistance at 1.0580. The price trades around 30-SMA with the RSI close to 50, a pivotal level. Bears took over at the range resistance. The move has paused at the 30-SMA but looks set to continue. If the price breaks below the SMA, it will likely retest the 1.0450 range support level.

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However, if the SMA holds as support, the price will bounce higher to retest the range resistance. The price will get back to trending when the price breaks out of the range of support or resistance.

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