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  • Spot loses further momentum and breaks below 1.1300.
  • German flash PMI expected at 44.7 in March.
  • EU Leaders Summit, Brexit remain in centre stage.

The selling pressure around the shared currency is now gathering traction and drags EUR/USD to fresh daily lows in sub-1300 levels.

EUR/USD weaker on data

Spot remains well on the defensive today and trades in multi-day lows after advanced German manufacturing PMI is expected at 44.7 in March, prolonging the downside momentum in domestic fundamentals and reinforcing the view of the slowdown in the region.

Additional data saw French manufacturing PMI also coming in below expectations at 49.8, also slipping back into the contraction territory.

The shared currency, in the meantime, has faded the initial optimism and has resumed the downside in the wake of the disappointing set of poor results in the euro area ahead of the speech by ECB’s Angeloni and another day at the EU Leaders Summit, where Brexit remains in the centre of the debate.

What to look for around EUR

Market participants have left behind the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics as the main drivers of the price action. Looking to the broader picture, the performance of the economy in the region should remain in centre stage along with prospects of re-assessment of the ECB’s monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that investors keep pricing in the first rate hike by the central bank at some point in H2 2020. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is down 0.68% at 1.1295 facing the next support at 1.1234 (low Feb.15) seconded by 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12) and finally 1.1176 (2019 low Mar.7). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1448 (high Mar.20) would target 1.1478 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1514 (high Jan.31).