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  • EUR/USD clinches new monthly highs above 1.1930.
  • German, EMU Economic Sentiment decelerated in April.
  • US headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, 2.6% YoY in March.

The buying pressure in the European currency picks up extra pace and lifts EUR/USD to new monthly tops in the 1.1930/35 band on Tuesday.

EUR/USD up on weaker dollar

EUR/USD managed to extend the bounce further north of the 1.1900 barrier in response to the bout of fresh selling bias in the buck and the retracement in US yields in the wake of the release of US inflation figures for the month of March.

In fact, the US Dollar Index (DXY) and yields of the US 10-year note move lower after inflation figures in the US economy showed the upside pressure in consumer prices failed to meet invertors’ expectations during last month.

Indeed, headline CPI rose 0.6% inter-month and 2.6% from a year earlier, while prices excluding energy and food costs rose 0.3% MoM and 1.6% over the last twelve months, not as much as traders were hoping for it seems.

Earlier in the euro docket the ZEW survey came in on the soft side after the Economic Sentiment in the euro area and Germany lost upside traction in April. Across the pond, the NFIB Business Optimism Index improved to 98.2 for the month of March.

Later in the session, FOMC’s Daly, George and Bostic are all due to speak.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD puts the 1.1900 level to the test, although the lack of a strong catalyst prevents the pair to extend the move further north. The near-term outlook for the pair, however, looks improved on the back of rising hopes of a sustained recovery in the Old Continent now that the vaccine rollout appears to have gained some serious pace.

Key events in the euro area this week: German, EMU ZEW survey (Tuesday) – Industrial Production, Lagarde speech (Wednesday) – German final March CPI (Thursday) – Eurogroup meeting, EMU final CPI (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the index is gaining 0.11% at 1.1923 and faces the next hurdle at at 1.1934 (monthly high Apr.13) followed by 1.1989 (weekly high Mar.11) and finally 1.2000 (psychological level). On the other hand, a breach of 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31) would target 1.1602 (monthly low Nov.4) en route to 1.1570 (2008-2021 support line).

 

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