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  • EUR/USD remains slightly up near the 1.1600 area.
  • Global risk sentiment remains largely connected to Evergrande’s headlines.
  • US processing orders data and NFP numbers remain the key events ahead.

The EUR/USD price analysis remains neutral as there is mixed risk sentiment while the US dollar may consolidate its September gains in the first week of October.

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A new intraday low at 1.1590 has been set ahead of Monday’s European session, reversing early gains in Asia and rebounding from an annual low on Friday.

As a result of bullish EU data and risk appetite, the major currency pair pulled back earlier than expected. However, recent changes in market sentiment seem to have affected the price against the backdrop of a calm start to the key week.

Evergrande shares ceased trading in Hong Kong as China’s risk aversion wave swept across the region. But the sudden announcement that the investor would buy 51% of the management company was no small challenge to the bears on a week’s holiday in China.

Market sentiment was also challenged by US remarks over the weekend condemning China’s “provocative” actions near Taiwan and CNBC News’ report that trade representative Catherine Tai will announce that China did not meet phase 1 of a trade deal on Monday.

It’s worth noting that hopes for an economic boost from President Biden and the House leadership are connected to Beijing’s failure to stem the negative effects of Evergrande’s failure.

The S&P 500 futures hit an intraday low of 4,335, down 0.20% from the previous day, while 10-year US Treasury yields increased by 1.47% as of this writing.

After a two-day retreat from an annual high of around 94.07, the US dollar index (DXY) is paused after risk aversion supports the demand for the dollar as a safe haven.

EUR/USD recovered from an annual low on Friday as upbeat Eurozone PMI and inflation helped. Even so, market sentiment remains unfavorable, making the 1.1560 level a viable target for the bears.

The August US processing orders, expected to be 0.9% versus 0.4%, will join the risk catalysts mentioned above to entertain the EUR/USD traders ahead of major US Employment Indicators (NFP), which will be released Friday.

EUR/USD price technical analysis: Wobbling at 1.1600

EUR/USD 4-hour price chart analysis

The EUR/USD price is wobbling around 1.1600 handle. The same level coincides with the 20-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The volume looks encouraging for the upside correction. However, the price has to break above the 1.1600 area and find acceptance to move further up.

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The pair has completed a 51% average daily range so far, but the price action is still consolidative. Therefore, we may expect the next resistance at 50-period SMA around 1.1650 followed by a horizontal level at 1.1680.

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