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  • EUR/USD has risen 0.13% at the beginning of the week in a pretty slow session.
  • There is a decent consolidation low and the price has to brake 1.19 to progress further.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

EUR/USD is still in a firm consolidation range and it may stay that way until the FOMC meeting. The issue at the moment is the fact that some ECB members showed some displeasure at the face the pair hit 1.20 but when all said and done the ECB didn’t do too much about it. Now it is the Fed’s turn and the fact that they are willing to accept a higher inflation rate means they have more wiggle room for the dollar to move lower.

Looking at the chart, the trendline at the bottom of the consolidation is becoming more and more important. If it breaks then the price could test the consolidation low at 1.1695. At the moment there is no real momentum in the price to move higher and test the recent high just above 1.20. A good sign would be a break of the blue line at 1.19. 

The indicators are still positive. the MACD is green and the signal lines are still above the mid-point. The Relative Strength Index is still above the 50 level which is positive but just recently there has been a bearish tilt lower. 

Overall the price is still in a pretty decent uptrend but this move is still a sideways one. The market will need to wait and see what happens at the FOMC meeting to decide if there is to be a shift lower or higher. Just looking at the price action alone if the blue resistance level breaks to the upside that would be yet another bullish sign for the pair. 

EUR/USD consolidation

Additional levels