EUR/USD Price Extending Post-ECB Rally Above 1.1450 Ahead of NFP

• During a six-day uptrend, EUR/USD is taking orders to update a three-week high.
• Lagarde expressed optimism, raising concerns about a rate hike in 2022.
• The Fed’s Barkin notes hesitation over the pace and duration of rate hikes. The US data was mixed.
• Markets fear a negative NFP outlook and slowing Eurozone retail sales, so DXY ignores higher yields.

In light of the US monthly jobs report due early Friday, the EUR/USD price is expected to rise by its most since March 2020. A three-week high was hit by the major pair at 1.1470, up 0.35% on the day ahead of the European session.

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As a result of yesterday’s central bank action, prices have rebounded in favor of non-US currencies, including the euro and pound sterling (GBP). The bullish move is fueled by concern over bearish US Non-Farms data (NFP) and mixed remarks from the Federal Reserve.

According to general market expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept monetary policy unchanged on Thursday. Nonetheless, President Christine Lagarde’s announcement that she would rule out a rate hike in 2022 came across as a fairly aggressive change from her December announcement. According to the same comment, inflation risks are on the upside compared to expectations in December.

The US data continued to give traders mixed signals ahead of the main jobs report. Although December factory order data and 4Q unit labor costs weakened a day earlier, the January ISM US Services PMI and 4Q nonfarm labor productivity were strong.

In addition, Reuters reported that a Fed spokesman defended stock buyers backed by technology giants. “The Federal Reserve should start raising interest rates, but it’s too soon to tell how fast or how far this process will need to go to control inflation,” said Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin Richmond to Reuters on Thursday.

These games boosted the 10-year Treasury yield by 1.8 basis points to 1.845%, marking its first weekly gain in three days. Moreover, S&P 500 futures are rising 1.14% near 4520, while Asia-Pacific stocks have been mixed recently.

To get an idea of what to expect ahead of the key US jobs report, traders may first react to Euro-zone retail sales data for December, which are expected at 5.1%y/y versus 7.8% previously. Furthermore, despite the disappointing estimates of US nonfarm payrolls (NFP), previously expected at 150k vs. 199k, and a negative surprise from US ADP January employment to -301k vs. forecast + 207k, EUR/USD buyers remain optimistic.

EUR/USD price technical analysis: Bulls facing resistance

The EUR/USD price jumped up, breaking several resistance levels quite easily. The price hit the 1.1470 supply zone and is now retreating. However, two SMA crossovers on the chart point to bullishness.

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The volume data shows a potential downside correction ahead of further upside. However, the strong support levels may emerge at 1.1400 ahead of 1.1330 and 1.1280. The average daily range is 50% on the day so far, showing a volatile day ahead.

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