EUR/USD Price Gains Ground, Focus on Fedspeak

• The EUR/USD pair remains bearish in the short term as long as it stays under the near-term resistance levels. 

• A new lower low activates more declines.

• The US data could be decisive on Friday.

The EUR/USD price dropped as low as 1.0669 yesterday where it found mild demand. 

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Now, it has turned to the upside and is trading at 1.0735 below today’s high of 1.0760. Despite temporary rebounds the price could extend its downside movement after the US data came in better than expected on Friday.

Yesterday, the German Industrial Production dropped by 3.1% versus the 0.7% drop expected, while the US Trade Balance came in at -67.4B versus the -68.5B expected. The Fed Chair Powell speech had an impact as well in the short term.

Today, the FOMC Member Williams Speaks is seen as a high-impact event, while FOMC Member Barr Speaks and Final Wholesale Inventories could bring some action as well.

Tomorrow, the US Unemployment Claims, EU Economic Projections, and German Prelim CPI should move the price. 

Still, fundamentally, the EUR/USD pair could register sharp movement only after the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is released on Friday. 

The indicator is expected at 65.0 points versus the 64.9 in the previous reporting period. Better than expected US data should lift the greenback, this scenario signals more declines on the EUR/USD pair.     

EUR/USD price technical analysis: Retesting sellers’ zone

Technically, the pair has found support right below the 61.8% (1.0692) retracement level and now it has turned to the upside. 

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As you can see on the hourly chart, the price found resistance at the 50% (1.0757). So, as long as it stays under this level, it could drop deeper. 

The 1.0780 – 1.0802 area represents a resistance zone while the descending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml) represents a dynamic resistance. 

On the contrary, the median line (ml) and yesterday’s low of 1.0669 represent downside obstacles. So, a new lower low activates more declines. Coming back and stabilizing below the median line (ml) may result in a further drop towards the lower median line (lml). 

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