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  • EUR/USD remains well bid on the day, continue to benefit from the better risk sentiment and a weaker dollar.
  • Headlines about China’s Evergrande and American infrastructure bill spending are keeping the market sentiment positive.
  • German IFO data release today will provide further fresh impetus to the market.

Before Monday’s European session, the EUR/USD price accepts bids to break a key short-term resistance level around 1.1655.

In contrast to the general risk sentiment the previous day, the major currency pair welcomed the weakness of the US dollar. Still, the previously generated resistance line examined the subsequent price rise.

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Nevertheless, the dollar’s recent decline has allowed the EUR/USD bulls to break a barrier ahead of an important week that includes the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting and third-quarter US GDP data.

A recent decline in 10-year US Treasury bond yields and positive sentiment catalysts from China helped the US dollar index (DXY) slide to a three-week low on Friday. Furthermore, ECB policymakers’ restrictive rhetoric during this week’s monetary policy meeting will support the EUR/USD pair.

As a result of the 1.3 bps decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, S&P 500 futures hit a record high on Friday, as well.

In the wake of these moves, headlines show that American policymakers are optimistic about reaching an agreement on infrastructure spending. China’s Evergrande announced that it has restarted construction at sixteen sites, including the last six.

Last week, the troubled real estate company repaid US dollar bond interest of $83.5 million to relieve the market. In addition, the recent injection of 190 billion yuan by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) to protect the financial system is also boosting market sentiment.

Powell, however, is in line with the rest of the Fed’s policymakers who favor tightening and questioning the EUR/USD bulls. Further, concerns about Covids in China are driving the yield on US Treasury bonds higher. The National Health Commission’s Mi Feng told Reuters over the weekend: “There is an increasing risk that the Covid outbreak will spread due to seasonal factors.”

German IFO data for October will be released ahead of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index and Dallas Fed’s October manufacturing PMI to keep intraday bullishness alive. US Treasury bond yields, however, will be the focus before Thursday’s major events.

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EUR/USD price technical analysis: Gains capped by 200-SMA

EUR/USD 4-hour price chart

The EUR/USD price is wobbling around the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The same area is held by a key resistance level around 1.1665. However, the price remains supported by the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. The next target for the bulls is the 1.1700 area. If the bulls fail to break 1.1665, the downside target coincides at 1.1600.

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