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  • The EUR/USD pair is bullish in the short term only because the DXY dropped.
  • Only a new higher high could activate a leg higher.
  • The bias remains bearish as long as it stays under the median line (ml).

The EUR/USD price rallied in the last hour as the Dollar Index was trading in the red. As you already know, when the DXY drops, the currency pairs rise. The pair was trading at the 1.0027 level at the time of writing and is fighting hard to stay above parity. Technically, it moves somehow sideways in the short term, so we have to wait for a fresh trading opportunity.

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The price rallied only because the Dollar Index turned to the downside in the short term. DXY’s correction could be over anytime. Today, the fundamentals could drive the market. The German Prelim CPI is expected to report a 0.3% growth versus a 0.9% growth in the previous reporting period. The Spanish Flash CPI rose by 10.4% less versus the 10.7% growth expected.

JOLTS Job Openings could drop from 10.70M to 10.37M, while the CB Consumer Confidence could jump from 95.7 to 97.6 points. The economic indicators are high-impact, so the volatility could be high. Also, the FOMC Member Williams Speaks could bring some action as well.

EUR/USD price technical analysis: Undecided above parity

EUR/USD price

The EUR/USD pair retested the weekly pivot point of 0.9980. It has jumped above the 1.0018 upside obstacle and through the 23.6% retracement level. Stabilizing above these levels may signal potential further growth. Still, don’t forget that the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml) represents a dynamic resistance. Also, the weekly R1 of 1.0070 and 38.2% (1.0079) represent upside obstacles.

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As you can see, the price failed to stabilize above these obstacles in the previous breakout attempt. In my opinion, only a new higher high, a valid breakout above 1.0095, could really activate a leg higher. Staying below the median line (ml) and making a new lower low, dropping and closing below the pivot point of 0.9980 may announce more declines.

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