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  • EUR/USD plummets to a daily low in the NA session at 1.1618 on USD strength.
  • Today’s NFP report helps Fed stay on track for another rate hike in June.
  • DXY clings to small gains above 94.

The EUR/USD pair lost its traction and slumped to a new 2-day low at 1.1620 as the robust macroeconomic data releases from the United States allowed the US Dollar Index to stretch higher above the 94 handle. However, the pair didn’t have a difficult time finding support and was last seen trading at 1.1675, losing 0.15% on the day.

Today’s data from the United States showed that the nonfarm payrolls increased by 223K in May to bring the unemployment level to an 18-year low of 3.8%. More importantly, wage inflation, as measured by the average hourly earnings, came in strong enough (0.3% – MoM & 2.7% – YoY)  to support the Fed’s intention to make another rate hike in June. The CME Group FedWatch Tool’s probability of a 25 bps hike in the next Fed meeting rose to 81.2% from 87.5%.

Additionally, upbeat manufacturing PMI reports released by the ISM and Markit supported the greenback’s upsurge in the session, and the DXY touched a daily high at 94.44 before going into a consolidation phase. As of writing, the index was at 94.06, up 0.12% on the day.

During the first four days of the week, the primary driver of the pair’s price action had been the political developments in Italy. After starting the week under a heavy selling pressure amid concerns of Italy going to another election in Autumn, the shared currency retraced its losses on Thursday as Italian politicians finally were able to reach a common ground to form a coalition government. As we approach the end of the week, the EUR/USD stays virtually unchanged.

Technical outlook

“In the daily chart, technical indicators retreat sharply after nearing overbought readings but remain above their midlines, while the price stands above a mildly bullish 20 DMA and far below strongly bearish 100 and 200 DMA, also suggesting that the upside is limited, as long as the mentioned Fibonacci resistance remains intact,”  writes Valeria Bednarik, American Chief Analyst at FXStreet, and further elaborates:

“The next relevant one comes at the 1.1775 region, while beyond this, the 38.2% retracement of the weekly slump comes next, at 1.1850. Supports for next week are the 1.1600 figure, followed by the 1.1509 yearly low. A break below this last exposes the 1.1440/60 price zone.”